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Coffee Futures Review: Rises In Range As Dollar Weakens

Coffee Futures and Coffee OptionsMarch 2nd, 2010

Arabica coffee futures inched higher Tuesday as the market stays locked in its recent range with a boost from the weak dollar.

Most-active May coffee on ICE Futures settled up 55 points, or 0.4%, at $1.3230 a pound. The contract has traded in a range of roughly $1.28-$1.38 in the last month.

"It's trying to find a direction at this point," said Tom Mikulski, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.

Late-session weakness in the dollar helped support coffee, as well as commodities including metals and crude. Traders tend to buy futures when the weak dollar makes them less costly in other currencies.

Coffee is holding in a $1.2830-$1.34 range, said Rodrigo Costa, vice president of institutional sales at Newedge USA in New York.

"There seems to be enough uncertainty on the longer-term supply outlook to offer support," Mikulski said.

Though ICE Futures prices, the benchmark for physical arabica coffee, traded sideways in the last month, cash differentials--the premium or discount from
the benchmark--have climbed.

Global coffee production in the current 2009-10 crop cycle is forecast to reach 123.6 million 60-kilogram bags against demand set at 134 million bags,
according to ICO data.

However, expectations for a bumper crop from Brazil, the top coffee producer and exporter, are keeping a lid on futures prices despite lingering concerns
about supplies from the rest of Latin America.

ICE coffee warehouse stocks increased by 4,537 60-kilogram bags Tuesday to total 2.777 million bags, according to exchange data.

ICE coffee open interest increased by 111 lots Monday to total 122,751 lots, according to exchange data.

Volume was estimated at 10,359 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 6,170 calls and 1,214 put options traded.

  Liffe May robusta coffee futures settled down $15, or 1.17%, at $1,279 a ton.


       ICE       Change     Range
Mar   $1.3020   +65 pts  $1.2900-$1.3020
May   $1.3230   +55 pts  $1.3080-$1.3285


  -By Holly Henschen, Dow Jones Newswires.



See Also: Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Sugar

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